Answering: “A “cone of uncertainty” can be used to do what?”

A cone of uncertainty helps a Product Owner in a complex environment forecast how much scope is likely to be done over a number of Sprints. It shows a range that widens the further out the forecast goes, rather than a single date or number.

Exam Question

A “cone of uncertainty” can be used to do what?
(choose the best answer)
A. Rapidly identify and prioritize all uncertainties.
B. Represent the relative level of difficulty for predicting the velocity of individual team members.
C. Help a Product Owner, working in a complex environment, forecast the scope of work likely to be done during a certain number of Sprints.
D. Determine whether to cut quality, similar to the “Iron Triangle” of project management.

Correct Answer

C. Help a Product Owner, working in a complex environment, forecast the scope of work likely to be done during a certain number of Sprints.

Why This Is the Correct Answer

The cone of uncertainty is a forecasting aid, not a Scrum artifact. It plots a range of outcomes that is narrow in the near term and broad further out. A Product Owner can use it with past data, such as how much the team typically finishes per Sprint, to say what scope is likely, possible and unlikely by a given point. The Scrum Guide reminds us that in complex environments “what will happen is unknown,” and that forecasting practices do not replace empiricism. The cone keeps that uncertainty visible to stakeholders.

Why the Other Options Are Wrong

A. Rapidly identify and prioritize all uncertainties. The cone shows how uncertain a forecast is. It does not list or order specific uncertainties.

B. Show how hard it is to predict each team member’s velocity. Scrum does not track individual velocity. Forecasts are about what the team delivers.

D. Decide whether to cut quality, like the Iron Triangle. Quality does not decrease in Scrum. The cone is about forecast ranges, not trade-offs on quality.

Exam Tip

When a forecasting tool appears in a PSPO question, pick the answer that uses ranges and empirical data. Answers about cutting quality or tracking individuals are distractors.

Key Takeaways

• The cone of uncertainty expresses forecasts as widening ranges.
• Product Owners use it to forecast likely scope over several Sprints.
• Forecasting tools support empiricism but never replace it.