Answering: “The “cone of uncertainty” can be used to do what?”

The cone of uncertainty illustrates that the further out a forecast goes, the less certain it becomes. It does not fix project cost up front or justify cutting quality.

Exam Question

The “cone of uncertainty” can be used to do what?
(choose the best answer)

• A. Determine the cost of a project before it begins.
• B. Project what will be completed by a given Sprint.
• C. Determine whether to cut quality, similar to the “Iron Triangle” of project management.
• D. Illustrate that as a project forecast lengthens, it is increasingly less certain.

Correct Answer

D. Illustrate that as a project forecast lengthens, it is increasingly less certain.

Why This Is the Correct Answer

The cone of uncertainty is drawn as a range that widens over time. Near-term forecasts sit in a narrow band, while long-range forecasts span a much wider one. That picture supports Scrum’s empirical approach. The Scrum Guide notes that in complex environments “what will happen is unknown” and that only what has already happened may be used for forward-looking decisions. Product Owners use the cone to explain to stakeholders why long-term promises are risky and why forecasts are updated each Sprint.

Why the Other Options Are Wrong

A. Determine the cost of a project before it begins. The cone shows that early estimates are the least reliable, so it argues against fixing cost up front.

B. Project exactly what will be completed by a given Sprint. The cone gives a range, not a precise projection. The wider the range, the less exact the answer.

C. Decide whether to cut quality, like the Iron Triangle. Quality does not decrease in Scrum, and the cone is about uncertainty, not trade-offs.

Exam Tip

This question has a PSPO II twin that frames the cone as a scope forecasting aid. In both, the core idea is that uncertainty grows with distance into the future.

Key Takeaways

• Forecasts get less certain the further out they reach.
• The cone supports empirical, regularly updated forecasts.
• It argues against fixing cost or scope up front.