A Sprint forecast is the amount of work the Developers believe they can complete in the Sprint. It is a best guess, not a promise or a management metric.
Exam Question
A Sprint forecast is:
(choose the best answer)
A. Useful for the stakeholders to know what will be included in future releases.
B. The amount of work the Developers believe they can complete in that Sprint.
C. A useful tool for management to understand team performance and capacity.
D. A commitment the Developers make to deliver a particular set of Product Backlog items.
Correct Answer
B. The amount of work the Developers believe they can complete in that Sprint.
Why This Is the Correct Answer
During Sprint Planning, the Developers select Product Backlog items they think they can turn into a done Increment. The Scrum Guide notes that “the more the Developers know about their past performance, their upcoming capacity, and their Definition of Done, the more confident they will be in their Sprint forecasts.” That makes the forecast an informed estimate based on what they know now. Because the work is complex, scope may change as they learn. The firm commitment in the Sprint Backlog is to the Sprint Goal, not to a fixed set of items. Treating the forecast as a contract invites pressure, shortcuts and lower quality.
Why the Other Options Are Wrong
A. Useful for stakeholders to know what future releases include. The forecast covers one Sprint and may change. It is not a release plan for stakeholders.
C. A tool for management to judge team performance. Using the forecast to rate performance pushes teams to pad estimates. It is a planning aid for the Developers.
D. A commitment to deliver specific Product Backlog items. The Developers commit to the Sprint Goal. The selected items are a forecast that can be renegotiated.
Exam Tip
Learn the difference between “forecast” and “commitment” in Scrum. The Sprint Goal is the commitment; the selected items are a forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The Sprint forecast is the Developers’ best guess.
- The Sprint Goal is the commitment, not the item list.
- Forecasts are not tools for judging performance.
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